The biggest shakeup in the BCS standings this week didn’t even occur in the Top 5. Sure, TCU embarrassed Utah (more on that later), but the major event was #6 Alabama losing to #10 LSU.
As I wrote last week, Alabama was the prime one-loss candidate to jump the best non-automatic qualifier TCU in the BCS Standings, but the Tide’s second loss eliminated them from the discussion, and the closest one-loss team to the Horned Frogs is LSU. The difference between the Tigers and TCU is so vast (.9259 to .8170) and LSU is unlikely to get into the SEC Title Game. With a mediocre remaining schedule, it would be next to impossible for them to vault an unbeaten TCU.
So, with the one-loss teams out of the picture, all that remains for TCU is for #2 Auburn or #1 Oregon to lose. The Ducks schedule offers meager resistance (Cal, Arizona, Oregon State) but Auburn is an upset candidate against Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 26. The Tigers would likely still get into the SEC Title Game, but they wouldn’t get a major boost beating a three- or four-loss SEC East team.
Speaking of the Horned Frogs, the number three team in the BCS Standings has flown under the radar this season, but a 40-point evisceration of the number five Utah Utes has propelled them past perennial BCS-Buster Boise State.
Some people may think Boise is still more deserving of the BCS Buster crown, but I’m not one of them. Their bowl win over TCU last year is irrelevant to the discussion and their best win was a three-point victory against Virginia Tech, which is nothing compared to what TCU did to the Utes.
At the end of the day, it’s looking pretty simple. If Auburn or Oregon lose and TCU wins out, the Horned Frogs will be in the BCS Title Game.
Have thoughts on whether that’s good or bad for college football? Feel free to share. I’ll check back periodically and respond.