Boise State, Utah and TCU should be cursing Missouri and Michigan State right about now. The Spartans and Tigers both lost, putting Alabama directly behind the three BCS busters in the most recent BCS standings, and that could kill the trio’s hopes of a Championship Game appearance.
More on that in a second. For now, let’s start at the top, where Auburn and Oregon have a massive lead in the top two spots. There’s no point in debating Oregon’s mostly awful schedule; if they and Auburn run the table, there will be no BCS-busting this season.
The Ducks have to survive 15th-ranked Arizona and a rivalry game with Oregon State, but I’m not convinced those games are any tougher than the USC/Stanford games they’ve already won (especially if Nick Foles is still out).
So, that leaves Auburn as the team that’s most likely to lose and open up a spot in the top 2. And, sure, they could very easily lose the Iron Bowl to Alabama, but that could wind up being just as bad for the non-BCS teams.
Yeah, I know, Alabama’s a distant 6th in the BCS standings right now, but with #10 LSU, #22 Mississippi State and #2 Auburn still on the schedule, don’t think it won’t rocket back up the standings if it runs the table. Bama’s computer ranking (15th) will shoot up when they play three ranked teams in four weeks and they’re already 5th in the human polls, which matter the most, anyway. If Alabama runs the table, I’d wager it steals the second spot in the title game.
If you’re an anti-BCS person, what should you hope for? Someone beside Auburn beats Alabama–best scenario would be South Carolina in the SEC title game, although the most likely candidate is LSU–which would knock the Tide out of contention. If Alabama were to then beat Auburn, it’d be hard to see the Tigers staying in the top 2 with a late-season loss.
Right now though, that appears like a longshot.